2018 has been bearish, and recently presented a record low for Bitcoin (BTC). On Wednesday, the coin plunged over 11% to the lowest it’s been since before the Q4 2017 surge. And today, Monday, it dropped 8% as the pullback continues. Popular analyst Willy Woo says the worst is not yet over.
With the number one coin falling, investors are looking for answers. No one are 100% sure, but the drop possibly ties to the recent Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fork. The fork, which occurred the Wednesday of Bitcoin’s (BTC) crash, was shrouded in uncertainty. Two major developers disagreed about the protocol upgrade. The heated competition continues, and likely many pulled out until the dust settles.
The volatility doesn’t faze many investors, and they forecast a likely bull run before the year’s end, but not Woo
Woo relies on a number of indicators in his analysis, including his own inventions. He created the NVT, or Network Value to Transactions Ratio. This is based on a traditional PE, or price to earnings ratio used for stocks. Of course, we can’t directly determine Bitcoin’s (BTC) earnings since it’s not a company. But we do know how it’s moving through the market. Woo explains:
“In Bitcoin, we know the transaction throughput…it’s the closest proxy we have to [earnings]. That’s all it is really. If Bitcoin was a payment company, let’s measure how much throughput it has, to its valuation”
At the basic level, therefore, NVT is simply the result of dividing market cap by volume.
Predictions for the market trend
Woo, the crypto analyst behind Exodus Wallet and Fomonomics.com, responded to a recent Twitter poll about predictions for the market trend. Here, 30% believe the market is at the bottom, 40% feel there is a ways to go yet, and 20% are not sure. Woo predicts that the market won’t bottom out until Q2 2019, saying:
“All our blockchain indicators remain bearish. NVT, NVTS, MVRV, BNM, NVM. They are experimental but have served to make very correct calls to date, even when traditional on-exchange indicators were reading to the contrary”
He describes the turnaround as “a long grind upwards”
To Woo’s credit, he made a similar prediction on Twitter last July, based on the same indicators. This was a time when many others were calling a rally in the very near future.
Finally, Woo admits that this is only a prediction based on the best tools he has available, and that anything could happen. Meanwhile, some remain optimistic that a bull run could come sooner if institutional investment pours in.
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The post Willy Woo Forecasts Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom in Q2 2019 by Eric Van Orman appeared first on BittPress – Cryptocurrency News, Bitcoin & Ethereum Blockchain News.